Ford losing the swing votes on council, but what's a swing vote anyway?
Ford losing the swing votes on council, but what's a swing vote anyway?
Ford, having entered 2011 as a political giant swaggering through Queen's Park and dictating transit planning to the premier, is ending the year as a mere mortal. It happens to all mayors—indeed, all politicians—but the effect as far as Ford is concerned could be further political difficulty. The Toronto Star tells us why:
By July 2011, council had also voted on closing a library, outsourcing waste collection, removing the Jarvis St. bike lanes, and seven other significant matters. As of then, the swing voters had sided with Ford 66 per cent of the time.
As of today—after votes on service cuts and preventing the privatization of the Toronto Parking Authority—the swing voters have sided with Ford only 54 per cent of the time.
The eight are: Ana Bailão, Josh Colle, Gloria Lindsay Luby, Chin Lee, Josh Matlow, Mary-Margaret McMahon, Ron Moeser and Jaye Robinson.
If we go to the Ford Council Scorecard (an always-useful resource for council-watchers), we see just how broad a group these councillors are. Moeser has voted with Rob Ford more than 80 per cent of the time, while Bailão (Ward 18, Davenport) has voted with the mayor only 30 per cent of the time. That's a huge range, which makes the idea of a "swing" bloc questionable.
If we were to limit our count of a swing bloc numerically using the last year's votes (again, using the scorecard) and picking, somewhat arbitrarily, councillors who've voted with the mayor between 60 and 40 per cent of the time, we get only three councillors: Matlow (Ward 22, St. Paul's), Colle (Ward 15, Eglinton-Lawrence), and Lee (Ward 41, Scarborough-Rouge River). One thing is pretty clear, whatever math you use. With the mayor cutting a less imposing political figure in the coming year—and nobody having to worry about running for anything until 2014—the mayor may have a harder time finding allies in 2012 than he did in 2011.
For what it's worth, Matlow is rejecting the Star's analysis both in its story and on Twitter:
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